Kawhi in Flux, Embiid’s Next Team, Jaylen vs. Advanced Numbers, and a Mini-Mailbag With Joe House

[00:00] This episode is brought to you by TikTok. Did you know you can use TikTok to connect even more with the sports you love? It's not just highlights, it's everything around the game, including the sports community. Find breakdowns of classic basketball plays, deep dives on baseball stats, even videos on how athletes train and recover. [00:17] There are people teaching strategy, sports, history, even ways to improve your jump shot. [00:22] It's kind of like the biggest locker room ever and everyone's sharing what they know. [00:26] on TikTok. [00:28]. [00:33] The Bill Simmons Podcast is presented by PayPal.

We're also brought to you by The Ringer. [00:39] Podcast Network. I put up a new rewatchables on Monday night. We did Ali. [00:44] Will Smith, Michael Mann, our ninth Michael Mann movie. That was me and Chris Ryan and Ben Latham. Next movie we have, it's the 30th anniversary of, [00:52] of an Ed Burns movie called She's the One. [00:55] That is a very important Gen X movie. And, uh, [00:58] We've been talking about doing this forever. So it is me and Sean Fantasy because it's a Long Island movie and a special guest who's not on the podcast too often.

[01:07] So we are doing that. That is on Netflix if you want to watch that one. [01:10] And then the next movie we're doing after that is Hitch with Will Smith, which is also on Netflix. [01:16] So there you go. You can find this podcast on Netflix. If you do, Netflix has my list. If you just click the my list, every time I have a new podcast, it will pop onto your Netflix algorithm and the. [01:28] much more exciting way. So wanted to pass that along. I also have a podcast coming.

We're going to go live on Sunday on Netflix. Not sure of the time yet, but stay tuned for that. And I think I'm only doing the Sunday podcast, probably taking a couple of, [01:43] stays off next week unless something crazy happens, you know, like, [01:47] Kawhi Leonard's trade being postponed, which we're going to talk about in one second with Joe House. House and I, we talked about Kawhi at the top. [01:55] We talked about Jalen versus analytics. Could Joel Embiid be traded? And would anyone even want him? And then we did a whole mailbag.

And all of that is coming up next, right after we take a break. And here, Pearl Jam. [02:08] This episode of the Bill Simmons podcast is presented by PayPal. [02:11] You know a clutch move when you see one, a no-look pass, a buzzer beater, a big steal. Well, imagine if your wallet [02:17] could pull off moves like that. [02:19] That, my friends, is PayPal. Right now, you can find offers from hundreds of brands like Sony, Allbirds, and Viator. And save offers before you check out [02:29] earn unlimited rewards. Plus, you can add those rewards on top of credit card points, [02:34] Now that is clutch.

Download the PayPal app today. [02:37] Save those offers, start scoring rewards. Terms and exclusions apply. See com/rewardsterms/credit card points subject to issuers. [02:48] terms and conditions. [02:50] all right house this part of the podcast is 12 15 we just [03:20] our podcast and then as we finished Gahal told us that there was breaking news in the NBA. [03:26] It was the Toronto Raptors saying that their trade for Kawhi Leonard is on hold. [03:31] According to the statement, [03:33] They said the NBA League office informed us [03:35] that as a result of the ongoing investigation by them the Clippers, we would assume the risk [03:40] of any potential outcome of the investigation impacting Kauai.

[03:44] In light of this, we will wait until the league's investigation is complete. The Raptors remain eager to bring Kawhi back to Toronto and look forward to a swift resolution for our players, our organization, our fans. [03:55] So we actually talked about this in the podcast before. I'll just leave it in so we can hear, because Conspiracy Bill came out. [04:04] What does this mean? [04:07] I have no idea. I mean, the league office is doing informing. The league office is responsible. This trade happened a week ago. How much more time do they need?

What are we getting to the bottom of at this point? But this seems to indicate that Kawhi could be suspended. [04:24] It suggests that there could be Kawhi consequences. This is asinine. What is the fucking league doing? The league is responsible for the outcome and whatever pronouncement it wants to make. The teams are permitted to do business. [04:40] Obviously not. A condition... [04:44] Why did the league say, you're not allowed to do to trade or do anything until we finish our investigation? Right. Why didn't the league do that? You tell me.

What is the point of this communication now? [04:56] This is ominous. How about this? Finish the fucking investigation. I know, but it's the independents. [05:02] July the 9th. [05:04] Who cares? [05:05] There aren't any more witnesses to be interviewed. There aren't any more fucking documents to be reviewed. It's been an eight month investigation. Months after months after months. You know how many lawyers and how much fees is being generated by this? Baby doll thinks it's a money grab. [05:25] Who thinks it's a money grab? Well, this is the first time...

[05:28] All of us thought the Clippers were going to get penalized. This is the first time it feels like... [05:34] Kawaii, [05:36] might also be punished in this. There's no other way to interpret this. [05:41] That also really seems out there because the collective bargaining agreement gives the league the right to punish a player for agreeing to... [05:53] an arrangement with a sponsor. [05:56] Where the sponsor says. Well, but this means there's more stuff that maybe hasn't come out yet. [06:02] There's something... [06:06] This insinuates... [06:08] that Kawhi could be suspended for a year, six months or whatever.

And the team didn't know that when they traded for him. [06:14] Because they couldn't assume the risk of any potential outcome. [06:18] It's like the Raptors would assume the Clippers risk. No, you're right. Clippers are fine. But now that they have Kawhi, Toronto will have to be penalized. Like, [06:27] This has to be Kawhi related. But what you're absolutely right. What what is the scenario under which Kawhi is individually culpable for something that that is outside the bounds of the league's rules on this? What did Kawhi and is this the they want to do something to Uncle Dennis?

[06:47] I don't understand it. What could he do? Like if, if the sponsor was Coca-Cola and, [06:52] And Coca-Cola has an agreement with the Clippers and has an agreement with the league and does sponsorships and says, we also want you, Kawhi Leonard, to be a spokesperson for Coca-Cola. And we're not going to make you come do anything for you. [07:06] You know, it doesn't work out. The circumstances don't work out. We can't, you know, it turns out you can't, you couldn't make any of his appearances. [07:12] The player can be punished for that?

[07:15] I think they should go further. I think they should postpone the Jalen Brown trade. [07:19] I think all transactions should be postponed until we get to the bottom of this. Jalen Brown is back at the Celtics. [07:27] That would be incredible. I'm rooting for that. This is anything else. I'm really shocked by this. I'm dumbfounded. So this makes me think that, um, [07:39] There's a full Clippers statement as well. [07:42] I hope it says the league can go fuck itself. The Clippers... [07:47] - Acknowledge, this is from Mark Stein, our buddy, the Clippers acknowledge that the Kawhi investigation is ongoing, but we expect the trade to be finalized [07:56] Following its conclusion.

So was Adam Silver like on vacation last week? Where was he? Why didn't he tell them you can't trade Kawhi until we finish the investigation? Sorry, everybody. Right, no shit. [08:06] Does he not have the day that free agency and, you know, the transaction market opened up on his calendar? Poorly handled. As usual. What the fuck? [08:15] Why are we talking about that on July the night? I was busy last week getting offers for our 12 NBA Europe teams and didn't realize Kawhi was traded. [08:23] my bad we have to assume the risk [08:30] You assume the risk.

It's your risk. It's the league's risk. Eat a dick. [08:35] Not assuming shit. [08:37] Why can't Toronto and the Clippers make a deal? Why? So we could have Garland... [08:42] Wagner, Kawai, [08:45] Rui, [08:47] My guy Yannick. Keep Kawhi. Cancel the trade. Keep him. [08:53] But yeah, they got two firsts and two swaps. [08:56] It's a good deal. [08:59] Wow house. All right. We're, we'll find out what happened with this. But, um, in the meantime, [09:04] Let's go backwards an hour and 40 minutes to the rest of our podcast. [09:08] Do-do-do-do-do-do-do-do.

[09:11] For adults with Crohn's disease or ulcerative colitis symptoms, every choice matters. [09:18] Trimphia offers self-injection or intravenous infusion from the start. Trimphia is administered as injections under the skin or infusions through a vein every four weeks, followed by injections under the skin every four or eight weeks. If your doctor decides that you can self-inject Trimphia, proper training is required. [09:41] of Crohn's disease, and adults with moderately to severely active ulcerative colitis. Serious allergic reactions, increased risk of infections, or lower ability to fight them, and liver problems may occur. Before treatment, get checked for infections and tuberculosis.

Tell your doctor if you have an infection, flu-like symptoms, or need a vaccine. Explore what's possible. Ask your doctor about Trimphia today. Call 1-800-526-7736 to learn more, or visit com. [10:12] This episode is brought to you by Michelob Ultra. We're in the heart of the FIFA World Cup 26. Every play matters here. FIFA World Cup 26 for you. The stakes are just this high. Michelob Ultra, the official beer sponsor of the FIFA World Cup 26, is giving you a chance to win $1 million worth of tickets and prizes. Michelob Ultra, from the pitch to the poor, superior is worth playing [10:42] World Cup 2-6.

[10:44] Michelob Ultra of FIFA World Cup 26, Superior Access. [10:48] No purchase necessary. Open to S. Residence 21 Plus begins on December 1st, 2025. Ends? [10:54] On July 31st, 2026, multiple entry periods, visit com slash superior access slash FIFA World Cup 26 for free entry, entry deadlines, prizes, and details. [11:07] All right, we're recording this on Thursday morning, about 10 hours before the big DeBonta-Peterson summer league game. [11:15] I love how every year we forget that Summer League doesn't matter. [11:18] It's one of my favorite things when everybody gets carried away with all of this stuff.

[11:23] It matters because it's our first look and it's our, our, you know, there, there is genuine appropriate excitement. I will say that at least here in Washington, I encourage everybody to keep expectations in the appropriate level. Like let's just be calm, cool and collected about it. Remember poor Alexander Sarr when he came out and went, you know, over 15 in his first summer league game. Not a bust. [11:52] And whatever happens between Peterson and DeBansa tonight, it doesn't set the referendum for the rest of their careers. And by the way, we knew Peterson was incredibly talented and the most talented guy in the class.

That wasn't the reason he went second instead of first. There were... [12:09] Red flags last year. And, you know, I thought he was one of the hardest guys to peg ever. But, man, you watch the Summer League games, you're like, oh, no. I've been taking a lot of bullets. I've been catching a lot of strays. He's already stopped starting. House, the Wizards, Peterson. And Peterson's going to look great tonight against the Wizards. Peterson's going to look. Breaking news. He might just look great. [12:30] He might have just gone to the perfect team.

[12:33] Might be the right city, right organization, right coach, and he might be awesome. [12:37] And everybody knew that that was very possible. All right. I have a whole agenda for us today. [12:42] Amazingly, we're doing more Jalen Brown content, but not for the reasons people think. [12:48] We are also going to talk about Joel Embiid. [12:51] and whether he might be on another team next year. And then I have a whole mailbag for you. But I wanted to talk. The old guys have been watching all this advanced metric stuff.

[13:02] coming out of the Jalen Brown trade. [13:05] And you and I have kind of straddle the fence. I'm a little more advanced metrics friendly than you, but both of us are... [13:11] I test common sense guys as well. [13:14] Just deep diving everything from this Jalen trade for the last 10 days, I just can't believe [13:20] how bad he looks in the advanced metrics stuff. [13:24] And it's almost like I find myself going back over all the games I watched and all the Celtics seasons I took in and all the playoff games.

[13:33] and just wondering to myself, did I get this wrong? And then I landed on, no, I don't think I got this wrong. I think there are some reasons for some of these stats. [13:40] You haven't come on and talked about this yet since the trade. [13:44] Since your colonoscopy. Since the colonoscopy. Yeah, by the way, thank you for that. [13:49] Success. Great job by you. I'm glad we raised awareness for colonoscopies, by the way. We've talked about it a bunch of times. Go get one. Not that hard. As many as you're allowed to get.

I recommend them. But yeah, so... [14:00] eye tests going big picture on, as you're watching the dialogue about this, where everybody has now apparently decided, Jalen Brown is actually not an efficient player. [14:09] Um, there's, if, if he's your number one guy, you don't have a chance to win the title. All that. Like, where do you stand with all this? [14:16] I mean, right out of the box... [14:19] I reject the framing. I don't reject... [14:22] analytics. I think they are great. They are super helpful. It's information. It's a really interesting way of trying to measure guys against one another when their situations and contexts are so disparate.

Like how can you measure Jalen Brown's effectiveness against Jalen Brunson's effectiveness? Well, there's some ways to slice it and dice it. All of that is fine. I don't reject [14:52] this Boston Celtics team was in a transition year. [14:57] The anticipated number of wins, what was their win total? Was it 41, 42? 41 and a half. [15:02] Yeah, right. So that's where, you know, the markets were anticipating. It was hard to say what kind of season this team was going to have. And then through the combination of Joe Mazzullo, [15:15] And the front office, I give them credit.

[15:18] And Jalen fucking Brown, they won 56 fucking games because he is that guy. He is that dog. He took the standard and made all of those guys. I'm going to say this without trying to disrespect the rest of the Celtics roster in the most recently completed season. But he took a bunch of bums to 56 wins. And you know how I know they're bums? Because he got rolled right the fuck out of the playoffs. [15:48] You were up against a proper test in terms of a team with talent at all levels.

And, you know, the front court for the Boston Celtics this entire season was the development of Nemius Keita. Wonderful. Great job. A++. Two thumbs up. Shireman, Hugo, more Pritchard. Development, development, development. Great. That was the point of the season. [16:18] immediately, remember, again, it was just two and a half months ago. Boston was forecasted as a potential team to not only make the Eastern Conference Finals, but to make it to the NBA Finals out of the East, right when the playoffs started. They had the second best odds because the expectation around what they were capable of with Jason Tatum and Jalen Brown, a track record [16:48] together.

A slew of Eastern Conference finals, two NBA finals, an NBA championship. [16:55] that Jalen Brown was the MVP of. So I don't mind at all going inside the box and saying, well, how do we sort of measure the impact going forward? But here's the thing that I ask you, and I wonder about for Celtics Nation, [17:10] Why did they give up on this season? How can you come into this upcoming season when you've done the thing that was most important, which is bring in Mitchell Robinson? Yeah, an absolute rebounding miracle of a man.

Single handedly. [17:27] contributed to, [17:28] That rebounding role to the Knicks, to a vaulted them right to a championship. You bring that in. Your most dire need. You've addressed it with a guy who's absolutely. And then healthy Tatum. And healthy Tatum. And we know, we have 10 years of evidence that those two guys, plus Mitchell Robinson, plus whatever else the front office could do. That's a team that looks to me like a possible Eastern Conference finalist, possible NBA finalist. And we punt. [17:58] What's the why did we punt? Why do why did the front office give up on this Celtics team?

[18:04] You know, there's a lot to unpack here. You gave me a lot there. And I do want to circle back in the advanced metrics. You're talking about overreacting to a bad result in the playoffs, which I think Minnesota did too. [18:16] Minnesota did that Lamello trade. I talked about it when it happened. They were banged up last year, right? Edwards got hurt right before the playoffs. It wasn't 100%. Steve Vincenzo got hurt during the first round. [18:28] Io got hurt. [18:30] And I just feel like they decided, well, we don't have a chance anymore based on what the playoff results were, so we have to take a big swing.

[18:39] I agree with it. It's funny hearing people remember what they remember, right? [18:44] about the Philly series. [18:46] Which basically came down to three games. Game two, game five, and game seven. [18:51] And in game two, Brown and Tatum actually played pretty well. It was the guards... [18:55] I think Pritchard, White, and Vucevic were like two for 20 from three in that game. [18:59] and we just couldn't hit a shot, the pace was off. Philly was, I think, 19 for 39 from three, they stole the game, it's fine. They're up 3-1, they go into game five, [19:09] They're up double figures in game five.

Do you remember what happened in the second half of game five? [19:14] I don't. [19:15] Embiid fucking killed them. [19:17] Oh, yeah, that. [19:19] Embiid killed them and it came out of nowhere. And it was, you know, this was this, [19:24] crazy thing that got introduced during the series where all of a sudden you have [19:28] 2023 MVP Joel Embiid just looking like Joel Embiid again. [19:33] In the second half of that game, [19:35] He shoots seven for 10 and four from four from three is 18 points. [19:41] Um, [19:42] And Max is five for eight and they just play better and they steal the game.

Right. [19:46] Game seven, Tatum doesn't play. [19:48] Right. Tatum gets scratched. [19:50] And they do that crazy starting lineup to whatever. And, [19:54] I don't know. I didn't mind the way Jalen played in that game. I thought the reasons they lost the series, because White and Pritchard didn't shoot three, well, the Vucevic thing was a terrible experiment. [20:04] I don't hang that series on Jalen at all. So anyway, they overreact to it. You asked why they did this. [20:09] And I've talked to a bunch of people, and I know I've talked about it on the pod a bunch of times, but [20:15] It feels like they felt like there was no going back after Jalen had a taste of being the guy on the team last year.

[20:22] And that whatever they were going to do with this team this year, [20:25] With his contract, he wasn't going to get the extension from them at the end of July. [20:30] And did this have a chance to actually go sideways? [20:34] And I think... [20:35] Whether you agree with it or not, I think they evaluated this as like... [20:39] This isn't going in the right direction. The Tatum-Brown thing's been weird for two years. There's been a lot of dialogue about that, about... [20:46] Can you play with somebody you don't get along with?

[20:49] I don't know if they got along or didn't get along. I know they didn't hang out. [20:52] But I also know that they had an unbelievable nine-year run together. [20:57] Yeah. That they played more playoff games together than anybody. They won a title in 2024. I just don't think this was like a kid Mashburn and Jimmy Jackson situation. [21:06] But what I do think is that they were concerned that there was no going back with Jalen. [21:12] And that after being the guy that, [21:15] And now, hey, thanks for being the guy, but now Tatum is going to be the guy again.

[21:19] And we're not going to give you an extension that they thought it was going to go sideways and they got ahead of it. [21:24] Well, I don't agree with it. That's a confession. That means, you know, for all the accolades that we've heaped on the Boston front office for a long time, [21:34] Um, [21:35] a move like this suggests that they can't, [21:39] present and maintain peace inside the locker room. There is an inability to manage your personnel. And it's not... It's not a managing thing, though. You're talking about two guys making...

[21:54] 60 million a year, and the coach who's making 10% of that combined, as his voice is only going to go so far, this is a league over and over again when the superstars run the league. [22:06] It's not just his voice, though. But if the two superstars... So this is... The voice thing's important, because... [22:13] Obviously, Chisholm bought the team. He's only in the team for like a year and a half. [22:16] I do wonder if Wick was the owner of the team and hadn't sold. [22:21] I do wonder if he would have handled it differently.

[22:25] And I'm not saying he would have been the hero of it, but would he have been like, wait a second? [22:29] Let's all get together. We got to figure that, Rick, really? This is, that's one piece. And then the other piece is- People murdered you for the restaurant concept, but that is exactly what was called for. I mean, people- What people murdered me? Who are these people? [22:44] I enjoyed it so much, but you know- I was trying to be funny, but it was also true. Like, get these guys in a fucking room.

That's right. Everybody get in a room and have out whatever you have to have out. [22:59] guys as as your your focal points of getting to the eastern conference finals and possibly the nba finals every year that the two of them arrive to the playoffs healthy and this year what was you know it was forecasted to be a potential repeat really out of nowhere there was no reason whatsoever for that and it really was 56 games and it really was [23:24] Adobe Philly series. [23:26] There's never been a situation like that where somebody just comes back midway through the series, plays well for...

[23:32] three games, basically, and then immediately goes back to not being an effective player again. And then they get swept by the Knicks. Well, it was also the kryptonite of the Boston roster because the Boston roster was an in-development roster. It wasn't anticipated that it was going to be a team that was going to win between 55 and 60 games and win its division and make a long run into the playoffs. They did. They overachieved by 50 games. Nobody in the front court. That's why Embiid had the success he had.

They couldn't defend him. [24:00] Well, we couldn't make threes either. The... [24:03] So the old guy conversation, there's two things going on. The advanced metrics are bad for Jalen. [24:08] And this is something I've been trying to wrap my head around for a week. I've mailed you. [24:12] I mailed you a... [24:14] There's 85 guys ever. I went on StatHead. [24:18] Thanks to StatHead, by the way. I've always enjoyed it. Great job. Great job. There's 85 guys ever. [24:24] who averaged at least 28 points a game with a 30 usage rate.

[24:29] And you could put all these different stats, like win shares, Vorp. Vorp is like... [24:34] It's not nothing. I don't. The thing is, I kind of like these stats. I don't think they should be the determiner of a player's value. [24:42] But it's interesting, Jalen's win shares were the worst out of all 85 guys. And we're talking about like World Be Free. [24:49] 1980, Iverson in 05, Mark Aguirre in 1984, like, [24:56] And he's the worst. And then you go to Vorp, which is also not nothing. I don't mind looking at Vorp.

Jalen was third to last, and the only two seasons worse than him in Vorp were 2010 Carmelo and 2007 Carmelo. [25:12] And you look at some of the names in this list house, [25:14] And it is interesting. It's all these high usage forwards that never were able to really be, you can never build a finals team around them, right? Dominique. [25:23] Adrian Dantley. [25:25] Um, [25:26] Mark Aguirre, Carmelo, Alex English. [25:29] World be free. You could even build a first round playoff team around him. Donovan Mitchell now. [25:34] But these guys that...

[25:38] you could throw a big burden on them, and you could have regular season success. [25:43] But as the levels got higher, that recipe didn't work anymore. And I think that's basically where we landed with Jalen last year. We talked about this, like, [25:51] Let's go back to just us playing pickup basketball a million years ago. At some point, you have five guys – [25:57] One of those five guys needs to regularly create a good shot for everybody else, right? Just start there. [26:02] Jalen was the only guy who could do that on this team.

Pritchard once a week. Oh, he wasn't an offensive engine, though, Bill Simmons. I know. You say create a good shot. I don't know. The stats don't support that. Right. It's like, oh, his effective field goal is down. Well, maybe partly because every time they played anybody, the entire defense was like, we got to stop Jalen. He's going to take 16 twos. He's going to get to the line. Let's throw two guys at him. Let's trap him. Let's attack him when he goes to the rim. [26:32] 71 games, and this is what we've talked about over and over again, [26:36] durability, [26:37] consistency, [26:39] And can you be the hub of something bigger, which he did last year.

And I can't accept the advanced metrics. [26:46] Telling me otherwise, because I watched the season. [26:49] Well, not only that, again, I mean this as respectfully as possible. He dragged a bunch of fucking bums to 56 wins. Like he was a really important part in terms of setting a standard. Those guys, the development of Gonzalez and Shireman and Peyton stepping up and Kata. And like this is a team like roster wise that was going to win 41 games. That's what made sense. That was the sensible outcome. [27:19] that. I'm going to go out, and again, let's also give credit to Missoula, because the game plan also called for a kind of, you know, radical, although not that radical under Celtic circumstances, way of approaching every game.

But they conceded nothing. They conceded nothing. They went out and played their ass off every night. They gave it all every night. And he took on the biggest challenge every night. He's the one! Yeah! There's a reason that they all were able to [27:49] One guy took the lead. He took the lead. He was the leader. So I don't care about the efficiency numbers. I don't give a shit. That doesn't help me understand anything about contextually what happened last season. Yeah, there's burden and gravity and there's some... [28:04] He also played his ass off on defense, by the way.

That's why the MVP conversation had him featured. Will Bond said with a month left of the regular season that Jalen Brown was his leading contender. Now, whatever you want to say about it. [28:20] They were first in offensive rating for the entire year, and they ended up second. [28:26] Who else were their elite offensive players in this offense? Tatum played 16 games. [28:32] Pritchard, who I love, and I actually think Pritchard could go up a level next year if there's more shots thrown his way, but [28:40] I didn't know whether Pritchard was showing up night to night.

He would have games where he just stunk. [28:44] Sure. That's who he is. White was bad shooting-wise all year, even though there's great advanced metrics for him. And then everybody else, you didn't know what they were getting. That tells you. There you go. The advanced metrics for Derek White offensively were very good. They're always good with him, though. He sucked. He sucked. He sucked shooting. [29:03] He lost his confidence. Yeah, he sucks shooting. I'm talking about his offense. Yeah. He was awesome as a shot. Remember all the money we made betting on the over for his blocks every night?

Oh, well, yeah, Fandle finally wised up to that. [29:17] But part of the reason his shooting was down because he had such a big load. I think he wore down as the season went along. And that's another thing. Like when you talk about advanced metrics with somebody like Jalen and it could be Jalen, it could be a bunch of people. [29:30] But the night-to-night showing up [29:33] Playing 36 minutes a game. [29:35] I watched him during the course of the year, guard Kate Cunningham in the last five minutes of games, Luca, Kawhi.

Pick a guy, SGA, they threw him on, and he would accept the challenge. I don't know. I just feel like in basketball, you have to have one guy that's like, well, at least we have this guy. They have that guy, but... [29:55] At least we have this guy. We're probably getting 29 to 32 from our guy tonight. And when you don't have that, you're not going to win 56 games. So... [30:03] Um, [30:06] With that said, [30:07] his plus minus, if you go through his career, it's like shocking. I think he might be one of the great advanced metrics outliers in the history of the league, if not number one.

[30:18] Every single year, [30:20] The Celtics were basically better with him when he wasn't on the court. And I don't have an explanation for that. And, [30:26] I'm not going to be like, oh, the sets are wrong because obviously they're not. And I was talking to my dad about it because my dad, pre-last season, Jalen went up a level last season. He really got better as a creator and [30:38] Um, you know, his, he, I thought his, he had less turnovers, even though it doesn't reflect that he had the ball way more.

[30:44] But my dad, pre-last season... [30:48] They would have these two five-minute sections when they would take, six-minute sections, they would take Tatum out. [30:52] and Jalen would get to run the offense, [30:54] And my dad would either go to pee or go get a popcorn because he's like, I can't stand this. I hate when it would be like going to a concert and, you know, you're going to see the Rolling Stones. And it's like, oh, now we're going to play the Keith Richards song. You're like, fuck, can't you play Start Me Up?

It was like everybody goes to the bathroom. So that was there. And it always felt clumsy when Jalen was in charge of it. But last year was not that clumsy. I'm just telling you. [31:18] Yeah, I think it's fine. [31:21] to look at over the course of the career, [31:26] and point out these vulnerabilities, these frailties to his game. Like a flawed, durable player. Yeah, but we know... [31:35] from the outcomes, what kind of impact he has on winning. Like, right. The, the, the, [31:42] Including the title, the 2024 title.

And being the MVP of that team. The MVP, the finals MVP. Well, whatever. I thought Jason should have won that. Enough people saw enough to believe that he earned it. [31:58] Yeah. Well, I wonder, like, do they look at that season... [32:01] Where they superpowered the role players around them, which is impossible now. But they just added Porzingis and Holiday. They had Derek White already. They had Pritchard as a bench guy. [32:10] Al Horford was still there. And then you have this... [32:13] double forward combo in their mid-20s still. [32:18] Tatum and Brown and both of them were just a lot going downhill shooting threes and maybe that they felt like that was the peak they talked a lot about the.

[32:27] in the press conference about the usage [32:30] the usage of the two guys together and the salary cap and, [32:34] I get it. The argument falls apart when you also tried to trade for Giannis and Giannis and Tatum are going to be 70% of your salary cap. Um, [32:43] I will never for the rest of my life understand why they didn't wait to see if this deal was available until September, October. [32:50] Because I think Philly is saying yes on September 1st. [32:53] On September 17th, [32:55] on September 30th.

I also feel like whatever happens with Jalen in Philly, [33:01] You can't retroactively go and fit that to your opinion of this trade because I don't know if this is a great situation for him. [33:08] going to his Philly team that's Maxey's team. And then when Embiid comes back, everything revolves. I just don't think his stats are going to be the same. He's going to be. Who cares? [33:17] He's a winner. They're going to win. They're going to be good. [33:20] I love every Sixers future I'm in. The idea of them as 8-1 to win the East.

Okay, I'll have a little taste of that. They're 4-1 to win the Atlantic Division behind the Knicks and the Celtics. Well, I think they're going to be motivated this upcoming season. Obviously, the wild card is, do you get 40 games out of Embiid? But those three guys... [33:43] are really going to help each other. I think it's going to be a really good fit. Like putting good players on the floor, Edgecombe and Maxie and Jalen together, that's good. It's going to work. I'm not worried about that at all. These were other things I was saying heading into the 2018-19 Celtics season when I picked them to win 70 games.

[34:04] Kyrie, Brown, Tatum, Hayward we're going to be unbelievable and what happened but you could feel it right away and this is what you and I have loved about basketball forever it doesn't always make sense [34:18] Like sometimes you can have a team like that last year Celtics team where it's like we have one guy who can consistently create a shot. [34:24] We have a bunch of other guys. You called them bums, which I let it slide. I think they were young guys, role players. Okay. Whatever. They were all guys that couldn't be top three guys on a team except for white.

Um... [34:37] But they figured out [34:38] They figure out how to make it work. And we've seen this over and over again in basketball. There's been teams where the pieces fall into place. [34:45] With Philly, you have a lot of star power and a lot of money. [34:48] You have Embiid, who we're going to talk about after the break, who's [34:52] It's just, you know, I would just be careful with that one. Is it an on-paper team or is it a team that's actually going to play well together? Yeah. [35:01] Paul George, whatever you say about him at this stage of his career, definitely knew he was a complimentary player.

[35:06] and could kind of pop it out. [35:08] But he certainly popped in and out. I don't know if Kalen wants to pop in and out at this point. Well, if you're measuring it by how many games did Paul George play, he certainly popped in and then popped out of the entire season. He might have popped some things into his body, too. [35:23] Yeah, so when we talk about like, [35:26] The usage rate and some of these advanced stats, it... [35:29] Propped me to go on this huge deep dive. [35:32] I did my book from basically 07, 09.

We didn't have a lot of these stats. I didn't have access to them. [35:39] And there's stuff that like I would talk, like I was looking at Steve Nash. [35:44] who I had... [35:46] I forget where I had them, but like in the pyramid... [35:48] I think I'm going to move them. [35:50] But I think I had him somewhere in the 30s in the pyramid, and now he was... [35:56] in that cluster of point cards. Steve Nash ran the number one offense in basketball. You can go back now through basically to the mid-90s, and look at all the on-off stats, all the offensive ratings, everything.

[36:09] He was the number one offense every year from 2003 to 2010. [36:15] last two years in Dallas, [36:18] His first six Phoenix seasons, no matter who was on the team, they didn't have Amari Stoudemire for all of 06. Didn't matter. They were still number one in offense. [36:27] They were number one in 08 with Shaq when they made that weird Shaq trade. [36:31] They were number one in 09 and 10. [36:34] And another Mark Cuban masterpiece. Well, but then you go and you look at the on off stats for Nash and his, when they, he was off the court those last two years, [36:45] They were better without him, allegedly, according to the stats.

That must have been one of the reasons they let him go. [36:49] Anyway, my point is, like, [36:51] I do think some of these stats are great. [36:53] Um, [36:55] I think Jalen might just be an outlier to some of this stuff. High usage guys on a team that's not that good. That probably should have been like a 42 to 45 win team. [37:05] And for whatever reason, this type of player was able to pull 10 wins out of the regular season. But in the playoffs, it becomes harder. [37:13] Yeah, well, especially with the roster construction that the Celtics had this most recent season.

I just think it's a dumb way to try and capture... [37:22] who he is and the impact on the franchise. The only aspect of it to me that, [37:30] has a kind of like, okay, I can see this vibe to it. [37:34] is the extension. If he was really going to get bent out of shape about the extension, if there was something that happened in those conversations. But here's the problem. The Celtics front office did not prepare its fan base in any way, shape or form for anything like this. It was either Giannis coming to the Celtics to join Tatum, or we're going to run it back with JB, and then we'll see what happens over the course of the season.

And by the way, running it back [38:04] At the beginning of the season, at least, it's going to be a bunch of wins for the Celtics because Jalen Brown and Jason Tatum together with the cast of characters and inserting Mitchell Robinson into it. They were going to win a bunch of basketball games. And I think that should have helped overall. Like some teams, you know, circumstances change as you get to the beginning of the season. Some teams start underperforming right away. And the best you can do. [38:28] is right you just wait till december who's unhappy right yeah paul george in july is not the answer like we have [38:36] proof.

We know for sure that a GM took a big gamble on Paul George, and that GM is not in the league right now. I'll tell you this. It wasn't the answer, Rick. [38:46] Right after my colonoscopy. [38:50] Yes, it was. [38:51] You know who's the best example of the kind of Jalen season we're talking about where the advanced metrics actually kind of liked it was Iverson. [39:00] Interesting. His 01 season was... [39:03] Where, you know, his usage, everything is like just... [39:07] highest possible caliber, [39:10] And, [39:11] He was... [39:12] On the court was plus 5.7 and his on off was plus 4.1.

So it was around the same. [39:17] Now, there's also reasons for that. [39:20] They built that entire team around Allen Iverson. [39:22] every decision they made, every player they put next to him, [39:26] was to help hide him on defense... [39:29] a physical team that can protect him and basically just shoot a shitload of shots and go nuts. You know, and then we get to the playoffs that year. [39:38] And he's basically even on the court and minus five when, when he was, uh, [39:44] Minus five overall in the playoffs.

[39:47] Um, where he didn't have a lot of good games and they got a lot of foul help when gets Milwaukee and all that stuff. But, um... [39:54] It is possible to build around a high usage. More likely it works out like it did with Jerry Stackhouse on that 01 Pistons team. Remember when he averaged like 30 a game and they were 32 and 50? That's usually the way it goes. Yeah. What I – I thought the – [40:10] touch point the reference that that was closest to what i might have imagined for the celtics team was russell westbrook the year that um kd left right and he he averaged his triple double that was the 16 17 year right yeah they won like i'm gonna say 48 games something like that i think they won 46 yeah maybe it was 48 but they got they won one game in in the playoffs they immediately [40:40] there was that one game in the weekend.

[40:42] when he was just awesome in the last three minutes and it was like, all right, fine. You twist my arm. You have it. But, um, [40:48] The point is Jalen could at least be somebody that you could, whether the advanced metric stats loved it or not, he could be the fulcrum of a team that could win in the mid-50s if you put the right types of players around him. I don't know if there's a lot of guys like that in the league. [41:01] I agree. [41:03] By the way, as great as Kawhi was last year, [41:05] the durability thing is just not going to be there with him in the same way.

[41:10] You know, and I also wonder... [41:12] I can't remember if I said this before, but if you're playing 71 games and you're going hard in all those games and you're really trying to guard and do all the stuff that Jalen was trying to do. [41:21] You're not going to be 100% for all of those games. Right. Right. [41:25] Whereas like the [41:26] We've seen some guys where they can play the 55 to 58 games and take a couple breaks during the season. [41:33] Look at Paul George. Paul George took 25 games off, came back.

He was 21 a game the last 10 games of the season. Then he was really good in the playoffs. [41:41] Partly because he took 25 games off in the middle of the season. So, um... [41:46] I will never understand why they didn't wait. [41:48] And I think I'm more confused by the advanced metrics than I was before this trade. [41:53] Because I don't really have an explanation for how they're worse when – [41:58] when he plays and they were better when he was off the court. And I think it's an advanced...

[42:03] analytics team that was like, this is... [42:06] This is multiple years now where this has been the case. [42:09] What multiple years, though? Just saying regular season. The years they were making it to the Eastern Conference Finals, the years they were making it to the NBA Finals. There's some alchemy there. There's something about the chemistry experiment that's producing more good results than not good. These far runs deep into the playoffs with him as the second most important player, and it's fine casting him that way. That tells me a lot about his import to the situation.

[42:39] like a TV show. [42:41] where it's like, this is ER season eight, [42:44] We don't really need to pay our number two lead $60 million anywhere. [42:48] We can get some other actress and bring her in and basically get the same ratings. [42:54] What's your reasonable forecast for the Celtics this upcoming season? [42:59] Oh, I'd be shocked if they weren't in the mid-50s again. I think FanDuel has them... [43:03] Minus 135 for the 50 plus. There's more injury risks this year with the team. There's 49 and a half on FanDuel and it's not minus 135 to the over.

[43:12] Oh, it was four days ago. 50 plus wins was minus 135, so that's different. [43:18] I'm going to try and pull it up here super quick. They have the Celtics. They opened up. FanDuel opened up. They put 10 teams out with... With the actual over-unders? With over-unders. And the Celtics are at 49.5. And I guarantee you the over is not minus 135 at the moment. Well, the thing is... [43:35] Mitch, [43:36] Assuming Mitch can play 60 games... [43:39] And played 25 minutes a game, 20 to 25 minutes a game.

He's so much better. 60 is a lot of games for Mitchell Robinson. I get it. But he's just way better than what they had last year with Garza and Vucevic. Could not agree more. That's why I thought they should have kept Jalen Brown. And then Tatum is in the Jalen Brown spot. [43:58] And has been a first team all NBA guy four times. So you'd figure there are at least a little bit about him. [44:04] They lose Simons and replace him with Paul George. And then you have Hugo's a year older and Shireman's a year older.

[44:11] More Pritchard shots, less minutes for White, so he can be a little more efficient. [44:15] And I don't understand why they wouldn't at least be a... [44:19] 54 to 55 win team. [44:22] For the regular season. That's why. They have more injury risk than they did last year. Yeah. No question. They sure do. They sure do. [44:29] Mitch, Paul George. [44:31] Right. But the thing is, couldn't they play Paul George... [44:35] 45 games? Oh, so it's the exact same price. It's minus 135. I got it wrong. Boston at winning 50 is still at minus 135.

And the over is over 49 and a half. That's what fans will set it for. Is it minus 135? So that's it. I mean, I would think about the 55 for that. [44:52] Because he figured Detroit's worse. [44:55] We'll see. Philly will be better. East is tough. [44:58] There's only one team that took a step backwards, in my opinion, and that's Detroit. The Pacers are going to be playing to win this season. The Wizards are playing to win. Now, that doesn't translate, but I don't think Charlotte is worse. I like what they did in terms of their machinations this offseason.

I like what they did long term, but for the season itself, we'll see. Well, we'll see. I like Orlando this upcoming season with a functioning head coach. And if Franz Wagner can play 60 games. [45:26] Well, but look, I mean, you know, they were forecasted to have over 50 wins last season. You would think Atlanta would be a little bit better. Right. The East is tough. The East is going to be a bitch. There's only three teams that suck. [45:37] I gotta say, the single funniest thing to me about the Jalen...

[45:41] and listen, and it's been discussed a little in different places, but [45:46] I think Jalen's [45:48] side and his agent definitely... [45:50] Definitely sabotaged a couple of possible teams. There's no question. [45:54] There's a couple of teams like who? [45:56] I think there were a couple of teams that they were like, yeah, he's not going to be happy if he goes there. [46:01] Name names. I think they were teams that [46:03] Backed off. [46:06] Here's the problem with trading him at this moment now, especially, is there are not a lot of teams that can take on a $57 million contract.

Like, it's just under the way this thing works. Yeah, but here's the way this thing works. [46:19] Go ahead. [46:20] Explain to me in a million years why the Brooklyn Nets wouldn't have traded Michael Porter's expiring for... [46:26] And three of the first they have for Jalen Brown. [46:29] What possible... [46:31] answer do you have for this? [46:33] you are asking for, you know, the, the, the, the solution to the Jesus shroud. This is the functional equivalent. Like, how can you explain? There's like, I'm Joe shot. I'm Joe sign. I call you.

[46:47] It's a phenomenon. Yeah, we have a chance to trade. Michael Porter's expiring. A pick down the road. We have like a Houston pick and something else. And we can get Jalen Brown. [46:59] Wouldn't your answer be like, what the fuck are you waiting for? Take the trade before they pull it off. The phenomena in the this is one of those phenomena in the universe that has no explanation. You just have to accept it. It's not like to have another Max guy. You can't even blame like this. Are you saying that Brooklyn put this on the table?

[47:20] No, I'm saying Boston thought they had a chance to pull something off with Brooklyn. [47:25] And at some point in the higher levels, I talked about this a week ago, it got squashed. They decided they didn't, they weren't interested in Jalen Brown. [47:32] Which you, oh, okay. I'm saying. Hire us. [47:37] Well, Brooklyn deciding against it makes perfect sense. Why? Because they make no sense whatsoever. Because you can't make any sense out of what Brooklyn is doing. The Knicks just won the title. [47:46] Who am I selling to Nets fans next year?

Please come see Brown, our rookie, before he gets hurt. Julius Randle. Here's Julius Randle. If I have Brown and Julius Randle and a bunch of shooting and young guys, at that point, I'm not interesting. Right. But yeah, they turn that down. [48:03] It's really bad. They don't need more teams. They just need to move that Brooklyn team. [48:08] We're going to take a break and then we got to talk about Joel Embiid. [48:11] This episode is brought to you by State Farm. [48:14] Countless hours in the gym, a thousand shots before tip-off, day after day on the same court.

[48:21] with the State Farm stanchion right there. That's right. The best players ever. [48:26] Put in the work. And State Farm is the same way with insurance experts who put in the work as well. Whether you get a digital quote, [48:33] or reach out to a local agent. [48:35] State Farm is there to get to know you. [48:37] and help you select the right coverage that fits your life, [48:40] and your budget. [48:42] Putting in the work is what separates the good players from the great, and that's why you want State Farm.

[48:46] on your team. [48:47] So get the coverage that's right for you. [48:50] Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. Coverage options are selected by the customer. Availability and eligibility vary. [48:56] by state. [48:57] This episode is brought to you by Netflix. The World Cup is finally here and the coolest thing right now, FIFA World Cup launch edition on Netflix, a fast and fluid game. [49:06] where your phone is the controller and your TV is the stadium. Play as any of the 48 teams in 16 real-world stadiums, and it's included – [49:14] in your membership.

Yeah. [49:16] Go to the games tab on your TV and play FIFA World Cup launch. [49:20] Addition now. [49:21] only. [49:22] on Netflix. [49:23] All right, Joel Embiid. [49:25] 57 million this year, 63 next year, 67. [49:30] in the final year of his deal. I mean, we're doing the worst contracts draft all over. I mean, this whole podcast is Paul George and Joel Embiid. Absolutely amazing. Jalen's 57, 61, and 65, and Maxie's 41, 44, and 46. [49:45] And the cap's going backwards. This whole thing where the cap went backwards has been, I wish I had been more focused on it heading into the draft in free agency.

Like, [49:54] This is nuts. It's $6 million lower than they projected it for this year. [49:58] I think next year it's going to be in double figures. And by the time we get to the last year of the decade, I think it's going to be like $25 million less than they thought. And I remember- So this is the most- Yes, I didn't mean to interrupt. Well, no, it's just when they did the Jalen deal a couple years ago, I was like, whoa. Yeah. [50:15] We had to pay the whole 304 with Tatum too?

Like, why'd we do that? And then everybody, and it was just Celtics. Every team was like, [50:22] Cap's going way up. Like... [50:24] It's like that contract in a couple of years. Like, and I remember doing pods about these guys are going to be making 75 million and it's going to be like, they're making money. [50:33] 35 now. Well, [50:35] The cap didn't go out because of all this local TV stuff. And it is one of the reasons I drove the Celtics trade. And if I'm the Sixers, [50:42] And I have $114 million for Embiid and Jalen.

And then I also have the Maxi thing going up. Who's the guy I want to build my team around? And I have Vijay Hedgecombe down the road. [50:52] Um, [50:55] It makes me wonder, do I need to have Joel Embiid around? [50:58] I think they're going to trade Joel Embiid house. And I think they want to. [51:02] And I don't care if this gets aggregated. [51:04] I think he's available. I think teams think he's available. And I think Philly has been [51:10] pretty careful about saying, we're so excited to build around Embiid, Jalen, Max, and Vijay.

You haven't