England Survives, the Jaylen Trade Fallout, and an All-NBA Mailbag With Zach Lowe

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[01:25] Save offers before you check out. [01:27] earn unlimited rewards. Plus, you can add those rewards on top of credit card points, [01:32] Now that. [01:33] is clutch. Download the PayPal app today. [01:36] Save those offers, start scoring rewards. Terms and exclusions apply. See com/rewards terms, credit card points subject to issuers, [01:46] terms and conditions. [02:14] All right, it's the Bill Simmons podcast. [02:18] It is 822 Pacific time. [02:21] Zach Lowe, kind enough to stay up late. We thought we were going to be on Netflix doing a live, but we had some tech issues.

[02:26] But we're going to get the pod going. I wanted to mention, new rewatch, most coming tomorrow. [02:30] Ali. [02:31] We're doing From Hell Month is over. It ended on July 1st with the Jalen Brown trade. [02:38] Zach Glow has how many podcasts you doing this week? At least two. I don't know. Yeah. Two, two is the floor for this year. Over, under is one and a half. Okay. Yeah. Um, [02:47] We're going to do a bunch of basketball stuff in a second, but we just watched... [02:52] England, Mexico. [02:54] The World Cup.

[02:55] There's a weightiness... [02:57] There's just nothing like it. I was trying to think of other games that feel this way and the Super Bowl can't feel this way because it's a neutral location. [03:06] basketball, we can get like 40% [03:10] to where we got to tonight, but there's something different about countries, [03:14] a place like Azteca, which I've been to, which I'll talk to in a second, but there's just nothing else like this, right? Every four years, [03:21] The pressure, if you blow it, [03:24] You don't come back now until 2030.

[03:26] Um, I, I just, I, I'm kind of drained after that game and I didn't really care who won. [03:31] I'm drained after every game. There is nothing like it. It's the every four years thing. So any missed opportunity feels like you've missed the opportunity of a lifetime that you'll never get back again. It's that every game is like there's no game. There's no like Mexico can make adjustments for game two against England tomorrow. They're just out. It's over. And even in group play, if you're in a hard group, like it's hard to just get out of your group.

They aren't elimination games, but they start to feel like elimination games really, really fast. [04:01] Too much, man. It's too much, and I don't understand enough of the rules, but that's neither here nor there. [04:07] It was one of the most bonkers games ever where we had, you know, England goes up 2-0 in five seconds. [04:14] Then all of a sudden we get a penalty kick. We get another penalty kick. Then all of a sudden England's playing a man down forever. And Mexico's just doing cross after cross after cross. [04:27] after cross and guy and every time you're just having a heart attack uh i went to a steca in 2009 i wrote a wrote a column about it i went for a [04:35] USA Mexico qualifier.

[04:38] And it was one of the great sports experiences I've ever had. The place is... [04:43] You can't even describe it. You can't feel more unsafe. It's like kind of designed... [04:48] It's designed to make everybody feel unsafe who isn't on Mexico's side. That's what they do. And it's really close to the field. They're throwing stuff at the players in the corner kicks. And it's just getting in and out. You're nervous. And you always wonder, like, what's the mood going to be if – [05:05] This is a terrible loss for Mexico.

How do we get out of here? [05:08] And I'm sure that's what it was like. You're watching England at the end. They had the one section. They're singing Wonderwall, which was really cool. [05:14] And then it's like, okay, now you guys have to get out of here. And these fans... [05:18] are mad and you've just ruined the next four years of sports for them. And you're not well disguised walking the streets of Mexico City after the game. You're not. That first goal that England scored, this is the same sound that when I was there, America scored the first goal and lost 2-1.

[05:36] They scored the first goal, and it was like, you know when – [05:39] It's like a mute button for a crowd. [05:42] Where it's like, bleh. [05:44] And it's like, what happened? Where'd all the sound go? It's gone. That was one of those. And then conversely, when they score, it's like the loudest, most joyous thing ever. But I thought it was an incredible win for England. [05:55] To go in that place, I don't think Mexico had lost... [05:59] like kind of a real international game in 13 years. [06:03] England's probably the best team they've played over that last 13 years.

But the stakes, I was trying to think, like, if basketball worked this way, [06:12] So this would basically be... [06:15] The Indiana Pacers Stadium. [06:17] if we made it even closer to the court. [06:21] And then... [06:22] Indiana had... [06:24] I don't know, a thousand times as many people [06:27] And all they cared about was basketball. And then this weight of the, basically the playoffs are every 40. I didn't even know how to do the formula in my head. [06:36] But that's the only thing I could think of. Because that, that Conseco Fieldhouse is the only...

[06:39] basketball, [06:41] arena i felt that kind of reminded me of azteca well did you did you hear the stuff i mean i think they were mentioning this on the broadcast how the mexico city fans found what hotel england was staying at and were were like a lot lighting fireworks fireworks yeah spraying the buses on the way with like i don't know if it was shaving cream so this is like old school try to call the players hotel room at four in the morning and figure out what their pseudonym is this is like old school fan stuff it's great home soil really seems to mean a lot in soccer is it's kind of [07:11] as a huge advantage.

But yeah, I look, I know nothing. I'm just an idiot American soccer fan who like checks in every once in a while. I just like England that that seemed like a really rugged win for England in that stadium down a guy and like Mexico had the ball the entire last 25 minutes of the game, but they didn't get like sensational chance after sensational chance. Their best chances were in the first half and Pickford, who my one of my hot World Cup takes is Pickford is now the [07:41] most punchable face in the world cup, but man, he showed up huge, man.

Like some truly amazing saves, but I still, he still has a very punchable face. I'm sure he would beat me up, but it's very punchable. [07:52] And Bellingham was amazing. Oh, my God. What an athlete. [07:56] Because Kane's the quote-unquote signature star of the team, and then Bellingham is kind of... [08:02] I'm trying to think of a basketball analogy of this. [08:05] Jalen Brown and Jason Tatum in the 2024 playoffs. Oh, boy. Too soon. Too soon. [08:12] Yeah, so we have... [08:14] America tomorrow. [08:16] And CR and Dabundo and I are going to be going live after that game.

And America has a chance to go. [08:22] Um, [08:24] to the final eight which feels like it was pretty significant what's the first world cup you remember oh i mean i remember 94 basically just because it was the one that was in the state it was the formative one it was so it was such a big deal i was in high school and i was like the classic dumb american uh i had a couple friends who played soccer and they were like trying to sell me on what a big deal this was and what a great sport it was and i was like just the classic guy and my dad still is this guy i was like every game is zero zero it's so boring one one nil [08:54] nil it was like i was like totally ignorant close-minded and it turns out it's just wildly exciting to the point of being like impossible for me to watch when i actually care about the game but i remember carlos valderrama at the colombian team the tragedy afterwards roberto baggio i think it was that the one where baggio misses a penalty kick at the end of that one so that was that was the first one where it was like really truly in my life that was the one where um it felt like soccer had a chance

[09:23] to get real momentum in America. [09:26] And then we just kept saying that for the next... [09:28] I don't know, 30, 35, 40 years. But now... [09:32] I think there's a variety of reasons for it. [09:35] But I think the main reason, other than the games have been really entertaining, and there's also big stars in different countries that you want to see, [09:41] But it's just having the games lined up to an American TV schedule has been great. [09:46] Even like during Fourth of July weekend. [09:48] Just to know that these games are coming on, [09:51] Basically, everybody's planning their stuff for the weekend or whatever around these games.

Even countries that you didn't even know who's on. And then you have like Holland on Norway, who is... [10:04] you know, one of the best players in the world. That's not like, you know, but like my wife doesn't know who that is. [10:09] She doesn't watch Man City. [10:11] So then, you know, people like that, it's just, it just feels like everybody's watching this. I know of him because all my dad friends are big Premier League fans and they've tried to get me to become a Premier League fan. I'm just like, I'm like you when you try to, when you try to pick Tottenham, I'm like, I can't, I'm 48 years old.

I can't like pick a team and pretend like I care about this team out of nowhere. I can't do it. So I don't, but I know of him, but this is my first time really watching him play. The guy's just like, [10:38] I'm just, I just watch him and he's just like walking around. [10:42] Standing around, walking around, turns over here, turns over. Then the ball comes and he scores. It's like this guy is just a machine. He's built to score goals. He's amazing. [10:51] He's like a shark in the water.

He just kind of swims around and waits for somebody's arm to fall in the water. I am. I would like to announce I am now throwing my allegiance with Croatia out, and we will address this topic soon. I am now throwing my allegiance behind Norway for the rest of the tournament. The full force of the Low family household is behind Norway. [11:13] Did that lady, the gif of that lady in the Croatian jersey screaming, fuck you, at the top of her lungs, did that sum up the entire Loa family's feelings on the game?

My wife was at the game, and she had an absolutely hellish travel story to get to the game, and they made it 15 minutes before kickoff. But I just look. [11:34] Explain it to me. Can someone explain it to me? Explain it to me. I don't understand it. It maybe, maybe hit a hair follicle and there was this minor spike on the fucking VAR chip, the chip that's in the ball. But we can't really say if the spike happened at the exact time it hit the guy's hair follicle. And if it didn't hit the hair follicle, it's a good goal.

[12:04] one second left in the game. We never know how much time is left in the game. I don't know how soccer hasn't finished. I think the game's over now, but it was basically the end of the game. They tie the game or just give us extra time. Who wants to, I tell you between the NBA and this, [12:19] I am getting closer and closer to just let's just have no more replay. Let's just live with the results on the field because this stuff is all nonsense. All the reviews are endless.

They go to the VAR. The nerds are in the VAR. A little shark fin spike on the graph. Croatia's out of the World Cup. We don't have another game. We're done. We're out. [12:40] I have some other hot takes about the World Cup. That was a really good rant. [12:44] I here's my what if we just went replay across all sports no slow-mo. [12:50] Yeah, like I sure you just get to watch it in real speed three times and then make a decision. And let's I don't want to watch NBA refs huddle up anymore.

I'm done. I'm done. It's great. Did you get your to Zach Zarba? You're so handsome. You get your TV time and Billy Kennedy with your facial expressions. It's over. It's over. It jumped the shark. You're done. So you're out on VAR to VAR sucks. I don't know what VAR sucks. [13:15] Throw VAR into the fucking ocean. I light VAR on fire. I hate all the people who do the VAR. I have two other World Cup takes that I have to get off. Can I follow up on your VAR and then we'll go to your takes?

Yeah, sure. I just feel like the offsides, it shouldn't be like, oh, you were fingernail offsides. No. It could just be distinct offsides. Ronaldo had a goal called back against... Caricia had two goals called back on offsides that were whatever. And Ronaldo had one. Ronaldo's goal should have counted. It's all stupid. [13:45] whole thing is stupid. [13:46] What are your other two takes? All right. Number one, and this I transpose onto other international competitions. [13:54] And I understand why it is, but I don't think the host nation should get tier one status in the World Cup.

So like Canada, S. and Mexico are treated like the top eight teams in the world when it comes to formatting the group. Same thing with the Olympics and basketball. Only 12 teams make it. I don't think the host nation should automatically get in. Like remember when England was in, when London, it was like, what are we doing? And my other, I don't know the formula, some will have to research it. [14:24] because it's just a random who plays who second place here, and you have like heavyweight clashes, and then you have Argentina who could like walk into the semifinals because of how the draw works.

[14:33] broke for them. And I will admit, Croatia benefited from this greatly in 2018 when their entire side of the bracket after the group stage just was like a wasteland of teams. Like all the best teams were out and they just walked into the finals or the semifinals. Anyway, those are my two takes. So would you do the receding for basketball? [14:51] In the playoffs? Yeah. Because the reason they don't do this is because the schedule, then everybody has to wait for the end of every round to keep going with the next round.

I just feel like it's less of a problem because of seven-game series and, you know, you're already down to four teams in each conference. Like, what are the chances it's going to be that much of a crime? But that is a cousin of my... [15:12] And you're, I think, too, the number one seed to be able to pick its first-round opponent, which I do support in the NBA. [15:18] In football, they recede after every round. [15:21] which I like. [15:23] And when it's a winner-take-all one game... [15:26] It feels like the reseed should be a little bit more advantage for the teams that have earned some sort of privilege.

I'm willing to admit that this is probably enraging actual soccer fans who have poured their life's work into figuring this out. This is just me. This is how I feel. I'm emotional. It's three days later. I'm still angry. I will be cheering for Spain tomorrow out of spite. [15:51] for Portugal. That's just how I roll in the world. You're going to spite cheer? I didn't realize that. Yeah. That's really the last level. Yeah, I got it. I actually got a couple different emails about the same topic about levels of losing.

[16:06] with Croatia. Oh, great. But then even worse was the Iran, where they had it, and then it got called back, but then they were still alive. And then they had that steeped game where the teams had basically agreed to have a tie, and then somebody scored. So then Iran was like, all of a sudden, they had been given a reprieve, but then the other team scored, and then they had been given a reprieve. [16:26] And they got kicked in the nuts again. [16:29] which people are saying that's like basically hasn't happened before.

But I do think – [16:35] The, uh, [16:36] We scored the game-tying goal with under a minute left in a World Cup game, and then it got reviewed and became offsides. [16:44] is some sort of level of losing of its own. [16:47] Maybe football would be the only... [16:50] Like if you had a touchdown and then it turned out the guy was on the line. Durant, I guess with the toe on the line, would be the equivalent of the Croatia goal. [16:59] But we know his toe was on the line.

I know. But in the moment, if you were just watching it, you thought it was a three. You didn't realize his toe was on the line. But the crochet thing, then you just lost. [17:09] It was tough. It was tough. You know, [17:12] It was tough. I won't elaborate too much more. That was a tough one. I've loved the World Cup. [17:18] I've been betting on it. I feel like I'm getting good at betting on it. Knock on wood. Oh, boy. That is famous. I had Norway and I had Norway parlayed with England today.

I'm on a heater. Oh, my God. Yeah. I like have opinions. I watch things. I'm like, I don't know. [17:36] Collins, too big for... This is going to get clipped so badly when you lose your next four bets in a row. Oh, I'm definitely going to lose. Well, I had another parlay with... [17:44] I had Norway, England with Spain tomorrow and the S. tomorrow. It was like 23 to 1. Sounds good. That seems like a good one, especially since, you know, [17:54] There was some intervention that took place to overturn a red card, which no one had thought was really a thing that could ever happen, but it has happened.

[18:03] Yeah, we had some sort of legislation with... [18:07] with the president apparently got involved. I guess a bunch of, I got a bunch of emails about it in the last 24 hours about this would be kind of what the sports star would do. [18:17] If we did have a sports star, like you try to intervene and bully them into repealing the red card for Valgan. I guess my thing with the cards is... [18:25] I don't think it should be a red card... [18:28] After a review, like what happened? Because they like to me, red card is like intent or it's like when you're breaking a clear soccer role, like whatever he did, Val got on that play.

To me, that's not a, oh, you're out for half this game and then all the next game because you accidentally stepped on somebody's ankle. It feels like they need a third card. [18:47] It's like a pink card. [18:48] You get red carded, you're out for the game, but you get to come back the next game. I was wondering if FIFA could overturn Draymond... [18:55] I'm not playing in game five of the 2016 finals. If we could just go backwards now. Well, where was the Croatian government at the end of that game?

Like I wanted, I remember Crow cop, the MMA fighter. I, what I want is like send him into VAR and they cut to the VAR guys review and he's just beating the shit out of all of them. Like Jason Bourne throwing them against the wall. There's no VAR goal counts. [19:15] Where were we on this? [19:17] Well, I'm sorry about Croatia. That's enough soccer talk for us. CR and Dabundo and I are coming on right after. [19:23] the American game tomorrow. Balgan's back. We have our [19:27] We have our striker.

I thought he was the best player we had. We're going to take a break. Lots of [19:33] 72 hours after one of the strangest trades in the history of the league. I have a nice mailbag. I only prepped you for one question, and we're going to go right after this. [19:42] This episode is brought to you by Michelob Ultra. We're in the heart of the World Cup. Look at these little special bottles for Michelob Ultra. Every play matters here. FIFA World Cup 26 for you. [19:55] mistakes, [19:56] are just this side.

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[20:43] - All right, so it's been four days since one of the weirdest trades in the history of the National Basketball Association. You talk to people. [20:50] There's texting, you text with people. [20:52] Maybe you send a couple emails back and forth with people. You talk on the phone with people. [20:59] Does anyone know anything about it? [21:01] What are people saying? What is the consensus around the league for... [21:07] Wow. Why did Boston do this? [21:09] But the consensus is you can't really find anyone who thinks it was a good trade for Boston, first of all.

Second of all, the consensus is it must have just been the bridge must have been burned to the point of no return. And the Celtics just wanted out of the Jalen Brown business for reasons that we may not fully understand, but may one day fully understand, because this return. [21:32] is, I think, surprisingly low, even if people in the league sort of had a conception that Jalen Brown's trade value was not going to match his sort of all first team, second team this year, all NBA reputation, sixth in MVP voting, all that.

Mostly, I think, because of his salary, more than any analytics or this and that. It's the salary and his sort of just like standing in the league. But, yeah. [21:57] Even so, there was just surprise that they chose to make this deal. Now, there's an... [22:03] Basically an agreement that it's not as if this deal was going to ever go away like the Sixers would do this deal in September and October and August. So why did they feel pressure to do it now? And you can find people who will caution that in a year, a year and a half, this deal will look less bad for Boston than it does today.

And it probably will. But you can't really find any fans of it. [22:26] Do you want to know what day I landed on? Was Paul George a better trade asset than maybe all of us realized? [22:33] Right now, the second... [22:35] And it was this morning in the shower. I was thinking about it. It's like, well, Paul George was really good in that playoff series. [22:42] Went back, looked at his stats. [22:46] He played five Clipper seasons. [22:48] 23-6-5 for the five Clippers seasons. [22:52] 39% from three. 3.43 is a game, Zach.

Three all-star teams. [22:56] The two Philly seasons were not as good. Some issues. [23:00] Some injuries. There's the 25-game drug suspension. I will say, though, [23:04] Last 10 games after he came back, [23:06] 21 a game. [23:08] 42% from three. And the playoffs, he was 60 in a game, 49% from three. I went back and looked at my notes. [23:16] from after game six and then after game seven. [23:20] And I repeatedly wrote down Paul George was the best forward in the series ever. [23:25] And he has actually revived his trade value to the point that maybe they can get rid of him.

[23:30] I did not think they would get rid of him for Jalen Brown. [23:34] But from where we were with him in March to now, is it is it possible that they really like Paul George just as a player for their team? Because I think it is. [23:44] And by the way, I don't agree with this opinion. I'm not saying they're right. I was going to say that was... [23:50] That was one of the sadder one minute segments in the history of the Bill Simmons podcast and its predecessor. That was it made me sad.

I just I felt I agree. I didn't know how to react to it. Well, when you're looking for answers, Zach, you look for answers. You turn over every stone. I could tell your heart wasn't in it. I mean, you were giving it an honest try. I respect it, but your heart wasn't in it. It was not. I tried. [24:14] I really tried. I don't think that the Celtics believe that Paul George is wildly underrated, a diamond in the rough, ready to average 22 points a game again next season. I think they know exactly who Paul George is.

They think he's going to be a nice third, fourth option, three-point shooter, good defender, all of that. They think he fits into how Missoula wants to play. They'll win a lot of regular season games. I said even in my pessimistic trade reaction, this team is a regular season wins machine. I think they're going to win 50 games and be in contention. [24:44] I mean, you can't just put almost anyone other than the very, very best teams in the East, like no-brainer, lock top six. They're counting a lot on Mitchell Robinson to change their offensive rebounding and shot profile at the rim because they lost some rim pressure in the Jalen Brown-Paul George exchange.

And rim pressure was all Brad Stevens talked about in that post-mortem, and they lost some in that. And now they have a guy who doesn't shoot free throws? And Mitchell Robinson's injured all the time, too. [25:14] like we've been secretly coveting Paul George. They know exactly what he is. I think this is just more about [25:19] the time, whether it, whether it is a, [25:23] overreaction to the Philly series going bad, whether it's understanding that [25:29] Putting Jalen Brown back into a 1B role was going to cause all sorts of issues, whether it's we've always thought he was a little overrated and compared to his salary, compared to his salary, to be clear.

And this is the time to act with with three years left on the deal. It might be all those, but I don't think it's like we we love Paul George like we did 10 years ago when we tried to trade for him. [25:52] I agree. I do wonder, though, if their thinking was... [25:57] You put Tatum in all the Brown minutes from last year. [26:00] with the same kind of offensive responsibility. [26:03] And then you shift Paul George into this supplemental role that they just obviously decided Jalen Brown was never going to want to play.

[26:09] that they talk themselves into [26:12] will actually still be really good. Because the weirdest thing to me is this is the opposite of a new owner syndrome trade. [26:18] Right? Usually the... [26:20] Usually the new owner is trading... [26:22] Paul George and five first-round picks for Jalen Brown. [26:27] And instead we have the owner going the other way. Well, not only that, this, the same ownership group shed all the salary with Drew Holiday and Porzingis and all on and on. Like Dave, Dave, Bill Chisholm and his group have done nothing but willingly kind of eat a little, you know what?

And big time on this trade. [26:43] Well, and I saw, when I did my thing with Kirk and... [26:47] CR a day after the trade. [26:49] And I felt I had landed on this is part one of a part two. [26:53] And they're going to use this Paul George and the picks they got, more picks, and make a play for the Trey Murphy, Jordan Poole type contract. [27:01] where they just, they get the asset, and in a year from now, they'll have way more flexibility. [27:06] That did not happen either.

[27:09] Well, not yet. Starting to come to grips with Paul George, maybe being in a Celtic uniform, which is... [27:14] It's going to be weird. I said this when I did the pod the other day that [27:18] There's real anger about this trade in Boston. [27:21] And it's something, this has been a feel-good, lovable Celtics run, really good. [27:28] since the year after they traded PG and KG. [27:32] I'm PP and KG to Brooklyn. [27:35] Um, it's always been an overachieving love it. They're really, the only unhappy team was that 2019 second Kyrie season team.

[27:43] But there hasn't been anger toward the front office or the ownership really ever. [27:48] Really going back to [27:51] I think the last time was maybe when they traded Antoine Walker. [27:55] People were mad that they traded Antoine Walker. I did have a high-level front office person at another team. We were just chatting today about stuff going on in the league, and he said – [28:05] It speaks to how solid the Celtics front office reputation is and how Brad Steven's reputation is that they're not getting even more shit and more anger for this trade.

Because there's only three or four front offices who could do this trade and not get just immediate cataclysmic blowback that they have enough benefit of the doubt, even from their angry fans, that it's not like a coup. And this is one of them. But yeah, I think the other thing about doing it this early is... [28:34] But it's going to be a long time before the Celtics start winning basketball games again. And if this were like in September and you could just say, look, preseason's coming, training camp's coming, just watch.

We're going to be, you know, 15 and eight right out of the gate. We'll be solid 15 and five, whatever. And like now, now they we have the absolute full offseason for people to be angry about this. [28:52] Like when Minnesota traded towns. [28:55] That was really close to the start of the season. And we were just right into it with preseason games and everything else. [29:02] I'll never understand it. And I know you and I both talked separately on our podcast about this whole advanced metrics. [29:09] argument that has now sprung and this is now [29:13] It's going to be the thing that we talk about all season, I guess.

And people have just dug into their sides. [29:20] It honestly mirrors real life. This is just one, this has become one of those things that's like politics where it's like, I stand here. This is my opinion. I'm just going to be here. And somebody else says, I'm over here. [29:31] This is what I think. Well, some of the analytics stuff is... [29:36] I mean, I don't want to do the whole thing on here, but... [29:38] Some of the anonymous... [29:42] The anonymous source who thinks with whatever team that thinks he's not one of the 50 best players in the league or the anonymous source who thinks he's not a top seven player on a whatever typical NBA team.

It's just crazy. [29:56] And I have always thought that he's probably a hair overrated, but it doesn't really matter. [30:03] Like, the most important reason this trade happened, personally, it could be the... [30:10] one A, one B thing with Tatum. But to me, it still comes down to 57 million, 62 million, 66 million. And where the analytics come in is, [30:19] Whatever, like the on-off stuff, throw it out. Like just whatever the – like all the analytics together – [30:26] If he's making $66 million and he's – let's give a realistic – [30:30] pessimistic ranking, a realistic, skeptical ranking of Jalen Brown.

If he's making $66 million and he's the 18th best player in the NBA, that's a problem. That's hard to build around when you have another guy making even more money than that. I'm just throwing that ranking out there. If I were an analytics guy who's done all the eye test stuff and seen – [30:51] All the stuff that Jalen Brown did to win finals MVP, carry the Celtics last year, all of that. So I have that infused with my analytics stuff that's a little more skeptical and it washes out to like 18th best player in the NBA at that salary.

I think that's really just what it comes down to more than anything else. [31:09] And I wonder if that's where we're going with the league. One of the things that, so obviously every single person in my life has asked me about this. [31:16] One of the things that I thought was interesting that didn't get enough attention was that the salary cap kind of went backwards. [31:21] And under under its projection by a little a little tiny bit. [31:25] Yeah, but there's been years where we're like, whoa, we're way over this year, and [31:30] I wonder if there's a fear with the local TV revenue just in general.

[31:36] that they were looking at two years from now, like, wow, we might get really screwed with two of these guys. So it's that. [31:41] Basically, the big picture outside of Boston, I'm wondering, is are more teams going to be thinking this way? [31:48] Is this driving some of the Pistons Durant stuff? Which, by the way, the Durant thing, that was another casualty of the CBA thing where they can offer him $100 million more than anybody else, but why would they? [31:59] Why am I just going to give you 100 million more than your net worth if you just tested it elsewhere?

So I don't. [32:05] It feels like, and I have a couple questions about this that I don't want to step on, but it feels like we're headed toward... [32:11] a really strange salary cap era for the league. [32:14] That the only time I can... [32:16] In recent history, at least since I've known you, maybe we didn't even know each other then, but it was like the end of the 2000s. [32:23] specifically with the Harden trade, which we've talked about over and over again, where there was a moment where teams started [32:30] choosing salary decisions over basketball decisions.

And I think that's the number one reason this trade happened. Number two is that all the stuff that happened from the moment the season ended all the way to last week, [32:42] I think, put a bad taste in their mouth and they decided to move on. Yeah, there was a time during that era... [32:48] where it sounds quaint to say it now, and I'm pretty sure I'm right about this, that the cap stayed flat. [32:54] basically for like three or four years in a row. And it was flat at like $58 million.

Like that was the salary cap. And so that, that is, and I have had a couple of agents sort of just venting to me in the last week that called the second apron. This is the agents speaking, but call the second apron, whatever it is, teams are treating it like more or less a hard cap and they're going to continue to treat it even like what James Dolan did and like letting Mitchell Robinson go and replacing him with an inferior version and Andre Drummond, a championship team willingly, [33:24] doing that.

Yeah, but he should have done that, though. I'm not defending Dolan, but we've seen teams do that. We saw the Celtics do that with James Posey. [33:33] in 2008 where it's what if you're not one of the best five guys and you're gonna bring all these penalties and all these other things with me i don't think it's defensible you have to figure out how to patch those stats together i mean the mitchell robinson minutes are better than the andre drummond minutes are gonna be and true like that you're gonna feel andre drummond is almost as good as an offensive rebounder but not quite defensively it's a huge downgrade the corner

[34:03] to see if Mike Brown leans into that like Nick Nurse did. That's like a little interesting wrinkle. But I mean, look, I'm just saying what I'm hearing from agents about the hard cap and the second apron and the Nuggets are going to be one of the [34:15] one of the test cases. I do have to give you your praise because [34:19] The day that Jalen Brown got traded... [34:21] Um, [34:22] even before and after I did my podcast, I had several executives around the league reach out to me. [34:28] Is Bill okay?

Where is Bill? And there were a couple I trusted enough to tell them where you were, but I said, I can't text it. It's too good. If you want to know, you have to call me. And their reactions were... [34:44] absolutely riotous. I've never heard some of these men, grizzled veteran men, laugh with this level of glee. [34:53] I... [34:54] I'll never have another experience like that in my life. Coming out of anesthesia and having my wife break the trade to me and just not being able to process it. [35:04] I would have had 100 guesses for it.

Anyway, all right. We got great mailbag questions. Let's go. [35:09] And we can cover some of this Jalen stuff in there. Joe Maddon says... [35:13] Dear BS, after watching the Celtics cut off a limb with a pocket knife with the Jalen Brown trade, you should add 127 hours to From Hell Month on the rewatchables. [35:24] I mean, that is probably the movie you would say for this Jaylin thing. We went from... [35:29] We went from the guy who was, is he going to be fifth or sixth in MVP to... [35:35] Whoa, it leaked out that we offered him for Giannis to fire sale.

[35:39] In the span of two weeks. [35:41] Um, [35:42] Clancy from Connecticut wants to know, [35:45] Would you rather Boston traded Jalen Brown a year ago last summer? [35:49] and tanked for a chance at DeBanta, Peterson, Boozer, Wilson in the draft. That's the great what if right there. One of many, but that's a great one. [35:57] So I went to... [35:59] I saw their first win of the season, I think. [36:01] They were 0-3 and then they beat Washington. [36:04] to go one and three, I want to say. [36:06] And Washington was terrible in Boston.

And I was watching that Celtic lineup. And I think I did a pod the next time. I was like, I think they should throw the season away. [36:14] I don't see it. They don't have enough... [36:16] Turned out, they go on this heater, they win 56 games. But when you think like round one loss... [36:23] versus what they get for Jalen and how the season played out. I just don't know what they would have [36:29] A year ago, he would have had four years left on his deal heading into – [36:35] the second season.

I just don't know what they would have gotten for him at that point. You're not getting a Desmond Bain trade, I don't think. You also, you know, [36:45] It's nice to say DeBansa for a shot at DeBansa. You could... [36:49] End up with Mikael Brown Jr. Which is fine, but the chances are not Are much better that you're not getting Depends, and obviously this Top four is outrageous, so Maybe the odds would have been in your favor But yeah, that's a good what-if [37:03] Would you have traded for Jalen this year if you were Brooklyn?

[37:07] Like last week. [37:08] I think that was kicked around for sure. Oh, it was really kicked around. I heard the Nets front office was enthused. [37:16] And then once it got to the higher levels, they were not as enthused. [37:20] I don't... [37:21] I haven't thought that much about it. I don't think I would. I don't think I would have. [37:26] Um, but I would have thought hard about it and I, and I don't like the path that I'm on really right now. I'm not that excited about it, but, um, yeah.

[37:34] I don't think I would have. So if the Celtics came... I don't know what the equivalent cost is. [37:42] for Brooklyn versus like, like what is their version of this trade? Because I don't think the Celtics would view someone like, [37:49] I think it would have been like his Porter equivalent to Paul George basketball. He's probably better. [37:54] than Paul George. I would say Porter's better. He's an expiring and he's cheaper. So, so Porter plus, I mean, I don't like the deal with at that point gets pretty palatable for Brooklyn.

Honestly, honestly, [38:06] Well, that's my question. If I'm running the Nets and I see this trade, [38:09] And then I go and talk to my basketball people and I say, [38:13] You guys told me you're interested in this Jalen Brown thing. I didn't. This was the price. [38:17] So it just would have cost us Porter Jr. and we could have given them... [38:21] I don't know, one of the Knicks first and maybe our own 2029 first and we get Jalen Brown. [38:27] We could add him with Julius Randle? [38:30] This is the exact trade I pitched two weeks ago on the Zach Lowe show.

Michael Porter Jr. and a bunch of draft picks, like two picks, a swap, whatever. You probably thought more than two first rounders. You probably thought like three firsts, three swaps. Yeah. And that was one of the things that the social team clipped and put on my Instagram. And Celtics fans shit all over it. And I was just saying, like, look, I said over and over again, this deal is going to net you. [39:00] little bit worse this coming season. It is going to make the fans mad. I tried to prepare them for it.

That was one of the deals I suggested. Everyone said it was a bad deal. It's not that bad of a deal. [39:09] Thank you. [39:10] I, uh... [39:11] I wish they had traded him last summer now that I know how it played out. And I got Paul George and two half-decent picks. Do you think – this is my mailbag question to you. Do you think they are overreacting to the last three games of the Philly series, one of which Jason Tatum didn't play? Like is too much weight being put on – [39:31] that, [39:32] versus the 56 wins that came before it.

[39:36] I kind of like the way Jalen played in the last game, game seven. [39:41] I'm sure there's some advanced [39:44] metric shit that could pick it apart. But remember he guarded and beat at one point. Like I felt like [39:49] To me, that was the good and bad of Jalen all in one game. Like, he took a couple of dumb shots, had a couple of charges, whatever. [39:56] That guy would... [39:58] who's willing to do anything it took to try to win the game. I'm not even just talking about him.

I'm talking about like kind of giving up on this whole model of the team being a championship contender going into next season. [40:08] Um, [40:10] Well, that's another thing. Tatum... [40:13] They put those minutes on Tatum. [40:15] And he lasted six games. [40:17] and then skip the seventh one because he wasn't happy with something that was going on with his legs. [40:24] And Jalen was the fall guy? [40:27] I'm not saying Tatum should have been, but I thought Missoula should have taken a lot more criticism. And I was talking about my pod podcast,

[40:33] as it was happening. Like, why are we putting this many minutes on, [40:36] Tatum, why are you trying to make him a 38-minute-a-game guy? I don't get it. Why not ease him back into it? Why not play him 28 minutes? [40:43] Um, um, [40:45] This is from Jordan in LA. With Jalen's value extremely low, I'd love to hear your blame pie for the reasons why. Percentages of ability in the basketball court, massive contract, off-court stuff. [40:57] How would you split up the blame pie? [41:00] I'm a huge fan of the pod.

Go see us even though I'm depressed. [41:03] I would say off-court stuff... [41:08] and massive contract, probably 90% of that. What is off-court stuff with Jalen Brown? Because there's no, like, people say that, and it's used pretty liberally. Is it just, like, that he shares his opinions on Twitch? Because there's no, like, bad off-court. Normally we say off-court stuff, and it's, like, bad stuff. [41:25] off-court stuff. [41:26] There's nothing like that. Thank you for clarifying that. Off-court stuff's the wrong phrase. [41:33] Um, [41:36] Let's go with... [41:39] Um, [41:40] Self- [41:43] Self-criticism.

Self-awareness. Self-awareness. [41:49] opinion of oneself? What we're going to say is that's where it becomes hard to separate that from the basketball stuff because that's going to bleed into, is there going to be a tug of war for control of the team? Is that going to impact chemistry? And they actually thought, yes. I mean, I think that's fair to say. I think they felt like [42:08] this situation was what it was going to be. I think the contract, [42:12] I would go 45 contract. [42:15] 40% self-awareness. What's my role? All that stuff.

[42:20] And then ability in the basketball court, it is an advanced skill. [42:23] metrics friendly team. And I'm sure there's some things they didn't love. [42:27] The on-off stuff, I'll never know what to make sense of it because you can't tell me that last year's team was better when he wasn't on the court. [42:35] He had a huge, huge, huge load and showed up all the time and did so many things. You know, I remember talking about this during COVID or right after when Kyrie was only playing home games and his stats, remember his stats were really good.

[42:48] It's like, yeah, he's playing once a week. [42:49] Like if you're, if you're going to play, if you're going to miss 10 games in a season, [42:53] You're going to play 36, 37 minutes and take the pounding that Jalen did and go to the basket like he did and nine free throws a game and guard the other team's best player. You're going to have games where you're not 100% and you play anyway. [43:05] And I still feel like there's no way for advanced metrics to... [43:10] to value that. [43:11] The guys that.

[43:13] Whatever they're dealing with, they're still playing. This is one of LeBron's. This is one of the great skills that he had. The durability and the consistency, no matter what his body was and [43:22] I don't know. I just don't know how you put a number on that, Zach. [43:25] I would give the contract even more than 45% blame pie or 40% or whatever you said. I would go 50% at least. And it's impossible to separate that from the analytics because the analytics are – [43:37] don't exist in a vacuum.

They exist in relation to what percentage of the cap he's taking up and is it worth it to have that specific player, [43:45] taking up so much of your cap. But I would put the contract as like, [43:48] Easily half the pie. Okay. So if we're going to say that, [43:53] How does Denver regard Jamal Murray right now? [43:57] I mean, I think they love Jamal Murray. They love his chemistry with Nikola Jokic. I think they're probably very aware that if they were to trade him, it would not look dissimilar to...

[44:08] From the Jalen Browns rated, it might even be a little bit worse because these smaller players, [44:13] And plays a position that is pretty well filled across the league. [44:18] Because we have... [44:20] He's over 50, right? [44:23] He's 50 this year, 54, 57. [44:29] Yeah. [44:30] And I wonder, is there going to be more Jalen Browns? Like, is Orlando going to start looking sideways at Franz Wagner? [44:37] Like Jesus. Well, he's on the smaller one. And that's the timing, right? [44:42] But in two years, won't it be like 47, 48?

[44:46] High 40s? He goes, yeah, 44, 45, 50. But 51 in 2030 is different than 57 now in terms of what percent of the cap it's going to be. [44:56] It's the next one. It's the next one. [44:58] And that's the other thing that we need to talk about is all these guys who are – I understand the extension rule and why it's written the way it is and why it's beneficial for both sides in a lot of ways to get security for players and teams. These players who are like – it happened with Towns.

It happened with Jalen Brown. It's going to happen with a lot of other players. You have three years left on your contract. I don't think – [45:20] If I'm a general manager, I'm like, it's cool that you're eligible for an extension by the letter of the law. Can we wait a year, man? You have three guaranteed years left on your contract. But it creates issues within teams really early in the calendar of the contract. [45:35] I feel like there's only four or five guys in the league that you would proactively just keep adding years to their contract, right?

[45:43] Like if Wemby is like, hey, I'd love another three years. It'd be like, great. That sounds awesome, Victor. Here's your next three years. [45:49] Right? Luca, same thing. I'm sure the moment Luca is eligible for an extension, [45:54] The Lakers will be pouring years in the extension. I just don't think Jalen's at that level. [45:58] This question came all the way from Lance. [46:01] in Australia. [46:02] Okay. [46:04] Do you think Jalen Brown's trade happened not because he asked to be traded, but because Tatum was jealous and said to Boston, it's him or me?

[46:12] I don't think it happened for that reason. I don't think Tatum said trade him, and I don't think Jalen Brown said trade me. [46:19] I don't think either of those things happen. [46:21] I agree with you. [46:22] Good question. They're even in Australia. They're thinking about this. [46:25] Noah is a Clipper fan. [46:28] He said, I don't have a question. Welcome to the love-hate Paul George relationship. I had a few Klupper fans... [46:35] Throw this at me. You know, it is funny, as I continue to try to talk myself into Paul George, [46:41] Really good career.

[46:44] Eight All-Stars, one top five All-NBA. [46:49] Third MVP 2019. Five third-team All-NBAs. [46:53] Three conference finals, 13, 14, and 21. [46:56] 21 playoffs, Zach. 27-10 in five. [47:00] 41 minutes a game? [47:02] For his career, he's 21, 6, and 4, 39% from 3. [47:06] Gus had an awesome career. And yet, I don't know any Paul George fans. Do you? [47:11] Everybody's like, my favorite player is Paul George. Every young player who comes into the league who's a win, his favorite player is Paul George. I have been a huge Paul George fan.

I think the last two years have tainted it a little bit. I've always been a fan. I wrote a big piece on him. I can't remember what playoff year it was. I remember that. I'm going to say late 2010s maybe? About his up and down sort of playoff record, and particularly the last couple in Oklahoma City were not good. [47:40] I think it was probably the year the Clippers made the conference finals maybe in 2021. But anyway, I've always been a pretty big fan. But the last two years, he's now 36 and the decline is happening.

And the last two years have been problematic in a lot of different ways. I'm looking it up now. Even Podcast P has gone dormant. [48:01] since July 2025, I was going to say, I think a great moment to mark this monumental transaction would be if you went on, [48:11] podcast key, but it appears to be... [48:15] It appears to be dormant. [48:16] Well, I think we're going to have him on the team this year, so I'd... [48:19] Like him to feel welcomed by all the Boston fans. [48:23] Um, [48:25] Look, he's...

[48:27] 2011 draft guy. [48:30] You know who else was in the 2011 draft? [48:33] Kawhi Leonard. [48:34] I mean, they were teammates. They were teammates for a hot second in Indiana. [48:40] Yeah, as the summer goes along and I relax, I'm going to really start thinking more and more about how good Paul George was in that Boston series. Like, maybe there's [48:49] Maybe there's something left. We'll take one more break and then I have more mail back. [48:54] All right, it's time for a special segment on today's podcast where we discuss the superior matches, teams, and players.

We're going to talk about players today for the FIFA World Cup 26 brought to you by Michelob Ultra. [49:04] the official beer sponsor of the FIFA World Cup 26, a superior light beer. I'm going to dive into three players that I thought had superior impact, at least so far, in FIFA World Cup 26. [49:17] as we head into yet another week. I love it. [49:20] Can't wait. We're getting close to the finals. [49:22] Three players that we thought would be three of the best guys in this tournament have all delivered and then some.

You have Mbappe, 27 years old. [49:29] prime of his career. France is playing Paraguay over the weekend. They're parking the bus. They're trying to agitate him. They're trying to agitate all the French guys. And he just has this attitude. He's seen it all. I've been here before, guys. None of this stuff's going to work. France advances. Somehow he has been one of the two most memorable players in this tournament. And I'm not counting Harry Kane just because we're recording this before the England-Mexico game. But Holland on [49:59] you've watched him on Man City the last couple years.

I think they won in 2023. It's not like he's [50:06] breaking news that this guy's unbelievable but he is the first striker i've ever seen who really makes me feel like i'm watching a dominant big man in basketball like there's pieces of all these big guys that i've loved from over the years like early 90s sean kemp on the headers just anything close to the rim sean kemp would get it feels like anything in the box where he can have time to jump and and [50:29] get airborne and stick his head somewhere and just get over somebody he's putting away.

Young Shaq banging bodies around. There's like three, four times a game he'll just bowl over somebody. Footwork of Hakeem. [50:42] And then a little Michael Myers in there, too, because he has the Michael Myers reactions after the goals. Everyone else loses their mind when they score. He's like he does the Michael Myers. I love it. To me, he looks like when you have in the Little League World Series, the one kid who's way bigger than everybody else who just throws the team on his back. That's the feeling he's giving us during this Norway run.

And they had a great win on Sunday. So I still can't give him MVP. [51:07] through this past weekend because, um, [51:09] at least through the past weekend, because that's, it's got to be messy. Carrying Argentina yet again, highest approval rating of any team sport athlete period right now. And game after game, it feels like he's doing a couple of magical things. And it's so much fun to watch him and watch the delight that his teammates have. Just getting to play with a legend like that, who's still got it. So I would have him the MVP so far as we head into yet another week of an awesome FIFA World Cup 26.